美国东盟关系的“三级跳”与东南亚地区秩序

Three Stages of U.S.-ASEAN Relations and Southeast Asian Regional Order

二战结束之后,美国的东盟战略经历了"善意的忽视""选择性再接触"和"全方位介入"3个阶段。在奥巴马政府的亚太"再平衡"战略中,美国通过军事援助、经济合作、多边接触与盟友协助4种方式强化了同东盟关系,将其提升为战略伙伴关系。美国东盟关系的发展取决于其对"利益"和"对手"的认知,需要站在东南亚地区秩序转变的视角下来审视。目前,东南亚地区秩序出现了中美东盟"三足鼎立"的局面:中国提供"一代一路""亚投行"等经济上的公共产品,美国逐步强化军事安全体系,而东盟则发挥着地区机制和规范的"引领者"角色。特朗普上台后,美国东盟关系面临着新的不确定性。稳定的中-美-东盟三边关系符合各国的共同利益,有助于东南亚地区建立新的秩序。

After the Second World War, U. S. strategy towards ASEAN experiences three stages： benign neglect, op- tional reengagement and comprehensive involvement. Under the framework of Obama administration’s “ Rebalance” strate- gy, U. S. upgrades its bilateral relationship with ASEAN into strategic partnership, with the means of military assistance, economic cooperation, multilateral engagement and alliance complement. It is significant to view U. S. - ASEAN relations with the lens of U. S. perception on interest and competitor,as well as the transformational feature of southeast Asian re-gional order. Currently,China provides public goods through OBOR and AIIB, U. S. gradually reinforces military alliance network and ASEAN enhances centrality on regional security structure and norms. After Trump takes office, growing uncer-tainty will cast on U. S. -ASEAN relations. In the future, a stable China-U. S. -ASEAN trilateral framework serves com-mon interests of the shareholders and will contribute to the establishment of a new order in southeast Asia.