中国货币政策操作方式实证研究——基于开放经济条件下的泰勒规则

Empirical Study on Chinese Monetary Policy Operations——Based on Taylor Rule in Open Economy

在对含有利率平滑、前瞻性和顾后性因素泰勒规则的研究基础上,本文引入货币供应量增长率和美国实际经济增长率,构建开放经济条件下货币政策反应函数,即扩展的泰勒规则。对中国货币政策操作方式实证研究结果显示,扩展的泰勒规则能够很好地解释中国银行间同业拆借利率走势,且该利率对通货膨胀缺口的反应系数高于对产出缺口的反应系数,该利率对货币供应量增长率和美国经济的增长率也存在一定相关关系。最后,文章对中国利率市场化、加强政策前瞻性、注重政策沟通、锚定公众预期等方面提出了政策建议。

Based on the combined factors of interest rate smoothing, forward-looking and backward-looking of- Taylor rule, this paper introduces M2 growth rate and American real GDP growth rate, and establishes a new monetary reaction function in open economy, that is extended Taylor rule. The results show that extended Taylor rule explains the trend of Chibor and Shibor very well, and the reaction coefficient of Chibor and Shibor to in-flation gap is much higher than to GDP gap. Besides,Chibor and Shiborhave correlation with M2 growth rate and American real GDP growth rate. Finally, this paper proposes a further interest rate liberalization, more forward looking, enhancing public communication and anchoring public expectations to improve the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy.