新疆第一产业内部结构产业关联度及波及效应分析

On the Industrial Correlation Degree and Ripple Effect Analysis of the Primary Industry Internal Structure in Xinjiang

选用新疆2002、2007和2012年的投入产出表,分析新疆第一产业内部结构与其他产业之间的关联和波及效应,重点剖析新疆第一产业内部结构的特点及与其他产业各部门的相互影响程度.主要结论有:农业、林业对交通运输、仓储和邮政部门的依赖更大;畜牧业、渔业和农林牧渔服务对消费品制造业和中间产品制造业的依赖性更大;农林牧渔服务对信息技术和金融保险部门的依赖性更强.第一产业仍是新疆经济增长的动力之一,但是新疆具有比较优势的农业和畜牧业的影响力系数处于下降趋势,说明两部门发展受阻.第一产业内部五部门的附加值水平仍然较低,未来需不断延伸自身产业链,形成规模化生产.

By selecting the input-output tables in 2002,2007 and 2012of Xinjiang,an analysis is made of the correlation degree and Ripple Effect between the internal structure of the primary industry and other industries,in particular,the mutual impact of the structural characteristics of the internal structure of the primary industry and other industry sectors in Xinjiang.Major findings are as follows：agriculture,forestry depends greatly on transportation,storage and postal departments;animal husbandry,fishery and agricultural services have severer dependence on consumer goods manufacturing industry and intermediate products manufacturing industry;agricultural services relies more on information technology and financial and insurance sector.The primary industry is still one of the driving forces of economic growth in Xinjiang,while the agriculture and animal husbandry,which have some comparative advantages in Xinjiang,are now declining in terms of their influence coefficient,indicating that their development suffers some restraints.the five sectors within the primary industry are still weak in terms of the level concerning the added values,which asks for further strengthening their own industrial chains and the formation of largescale production in the future.