基于Monte Carlo的主变压器全寿命周期成本研究

Life cycle cost study of main transformer based on Monte Carlo

目前在变电工程领域中的主变压器选择方面,应用全寿命周期成本(LCC)理论已经研究出了许多成果,但未对成本计算中的不确定性做充分讨论。针对上述不足,运用LCC理论建立了变压器的全寿命周期成本模型,将其应用在变电站主变压器选择中,运用Monte Carlo方法针对成本的随机性进行了模拟,并对全寿命周期成本因子进行了敏感性分析,用实例验证了模型和模拟方法的实用性。结果表明,在负荷密集地区采用大容量变压器和控制运营成本是减少主变压器全寿命周期成本的有效措施。

Currently, the life cycle cost theory has been used to solve many problems of the main transformer selection in power transformation engineering, however, the uncertainty of cost calculation has not been fully mentioned. Based on this, the life cycle cost theory was used to build the life cycle cost model of the transformer, and it was applied to the main transformer selection in transformer substation. The method of Monte Carlo was used to simulate the instance for the uncertainty of cost and sensitivity was analyzed for the life cycle cost factor, and the practicability of model and simulation method was verified. The results show that the large capacity transformers in the high load density area can be used and the operating costs can be controlled to reduce the life cycle cost of the main transformer.