郭家河煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测

Prediction for gas emission quantity of the working face in Guojiahe coal mine

矿井瓦斯涌出量的准确预测,可为煤矿安全生产提供有力保障。文中以郭家河煤矿为例,通过探讨瓦斯涌出量与影响因素之间的关系,采用多元回归分析法,结合回采工作面瓦斯涌出量的实测数据和相关参数,利用"统计产品与服务解决方案软件"(简称SPSS)对影响瓦斯涌出量的因素进行多元逐步回归分析,在解决各影响因素间多重共线性问题后,建立了瓦斯涌出量预测模型。将瓦斯涌出量实测值分别与多元逐步回归法和多元线性回归法所得的预测值进行比对分析,结果表明多元逐步回归法预测结果精度更高,更适合于回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测。

In order to guarantee safety of coal mine production,it is necessary to predict the gas emission quantity. Taking Guojiahe coal mine for example,this paper based on discussion of the relationship between gas emission quantity and influencing factors. Combined with measured data of the gas and relative parameters,it has established a multivariate regression equation using the method of multiple stepwise regression analysis which overcome collinearity problem by means of the statistical products and service solutions（ SPSS） software. Comparing measured values to experimental values in multiple stepwise regression model and multiple linear regression model respectively,results show that multiple stepwise regression model is more accurate and practical to gas emission forecast.