河北省“十三五”粮食安全状况预测

Forecast of Grain Security in Hebei Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan

对"十三五"期间河北省粮食安全状况进行了预测分析,得出河北省粮食自给率达到95%以上,粮食供求基本平稳,粮食安全状态向好,粮食总产量能够满足全面建成小康社会的粮食需求。但长期来看,河北省粮食安全状况仍存隐忧,主要为:耕地面积减少,质量下降;农业资源偏紧,生态环境恶化;粮食价格受到成本"地板"抬升和价格"天花板"封顶的双重挤压;从事农业的劳动力减少等。最后,从建设高标准农田和商品粮基地、改造中低产田和盐碱地、建立粮食安全预警系统等方面提出了建议。

By forecasting and analyzing the grain security in Hebei province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the authors got following results： the food self-sufficiency rate in Hebei province would reach more than 95%, the supply and demand of grain would basically be stable, grain security would be in a safe state, and the total grain output would be able to meet the grain demand of completing the process of building an affluent society in all aspects. But the authors also pointed out that, in the long term, grain security would still be accompanied by a series of underlying apprehension, for instance, decrease of farmland area and decline of farmland quality, agricultural resources being not in abundance and ecological environment deteriorating, grain prices squeezed by cost ＂floor＂ uplifting and price ceiling, reduction of labor force engaging in agriculture, etc.. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward from constructing the high standard farmland and commodity grain base, remodeling the low-yield farmland and saline land, setting up food security early warning system and other aspects.