基于ARMA模型的城市用电负荷量预测

Urban Power Load Forecast Based on ARMA Model

城市用户用电负荷预测对城市、区域电网的规划与发展具有重要意义,可以有效提高电网使用的合理性、可靠性与经济性.使用三次分段插值法、三次指数平滑法、趋势移动平均法等多种方法对所给的历史数据进行处理,且构建时间序列模型、ARMA模型、DGM(1,1)灰色模型,综合使用MATLAB、EVIEWS等软件编程,得到用户用电负荷量未来的预测值和变化趋势.

Urban power load forecast hold an important significance of urban and regional power grid planning and development .It can help to improve the use of power grid. Using three piecewise interpolation method, three exponential smoothing method, trend moving average method and other methods to give the history of data processing, building time series model - the ARMA model ,internet（ 1,1 ）grey model. Using MATLAB, EVIEWS software programing, we can receive electricity load forecast and the change trend in the future.