基于灰色系统模型的河源市物流需求研究

Grey System Model of the Logistics Demand for Heyuan City

为研究河源市物流需求情况,将物流相关的影响因素分为经济发展因素、流通贸易类因素、产业结构因素、物流资源因素、物流吐纳能力因素五大类,利用河源市2008-2015年的相关数据,对五类因素17个指标进行灰色关联分析,在此基础找出对物流影响较大的经济因素,并建立GM(1,1)物流需求预测模型,对模型精确度进行检测后利用该模型预测河源市未来五年的物流需求情况,为河源市未来物流业发展规划提供一定的参考意见.

In order to study the influential factors of Heyuan logistics industry development, The logistics - related factors are divided into five factors： economic development factor, circulation trade factor, industrial structure factor, logistics resource factor and logistics respiration ability factor, Based on the data of Heyuan City from 2008 to 2015, to estahlished Gray Relation- al Analysis （GM）of 17 indicators to find out the factors which have great influence on the logistics. Then estabishedGM （1,1） logistics demand forecasting model,and used the model to forecast the logistics demand of Heyuan in the next five years after the model accuracy is tested, then provides some reference for the future logistics development of Heyuan.