基于HadCM3模式的我国主要气候区划界线时空预测研究

Spatial-temporal shift for major boundary of climate regionalization based on meteorological data stimulated by HadCM3 during from 1950-2059 in China

气候区域分异规律及其时空演变研究是气候变化研究的核心内容之一。以1951-2014年中国气象数据和基于Had CM3模式的1950-2059年气象模拟数据为数据源来分析中国主要气候区划界线的时空变化趋势。结果表明:我国寒温带界线北移,且速度呈加快趋势;中温带和暖温带的北部界线向北移动,且东段界线的移动趋势较明显;亚热带北部界线已越过秦岭-淮河一线,且其东段北移趋势较明显;热带范围逐渐向北扩张。东北地区由湿润转干燥,达到干湿并存的状态;河西走廊、青藏高原和新疆地区总体上呈转湿趋势,虽北方半干旱区有部分区域转换为干旱区,但未出现明显的移动;华北平原等地区的湿润—半湿润界线和干湿区分界线均向西北方向移动;南方湿润区的干湿状况未发生显著变化。

The study on regional distribution regularity of climate and its temporal-spatial evolution characteristics is one of the core contents of climate change research. Climatic regionalization data in this paper contains measured data such as average annual temperature,average annual precipitation,relative humidity of 200 meteorological stations which are evenly distributed in China during from 1951 to 2014,and monthly dataset based on HADCM3（Hadley Centre Coupled Model,Version 3）as meteorological simulation data（including average annual temperature,average annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity）. We preprocess the data and evaluate the precision of the simulation data by using measured data from meteorological stations,and then use meteorological indicators simulated by HADCM3 as basis dataset for the division of thermal zones and moisture regions to divide the whole country,analyze the movement of zones＇ boundaries,finally reveal the future climate change and development in our country. Results indicate that under the effect of global warming,the annual average temperature increases slightly,and heat resources show an increasing trend in China during 1950-2059. Temperature zones has an obvious shift in some regions of China. The boundary of the cold temperate zone is moving to the north,and there is an increasing trend in speed. The northward trend of the middle temperate zone boundary and eastern part of warm temperate zone boundary is clear. The subtropical boundary moves to north and has crossed the Line of Qinling and Huai River,and the northward in the eastern segment is more obvious than that in others. The tropical zone is moving towards the mainland,and its range is increasing gradually. The area of vertical temperature zone in Tibet decreases in different period. Thus,boundary line of every temperature zone on the above shifts to the north. At the same time,there has been a change in the moisture regions in China. However,the degree of the change is relatively small. In northeast China,the climate is changing from wet to dry,becoming a region of both wet and dry. In the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Xinjiang Province,overall,it＇s getting wet,though parts of the semi-arid regions among here have turned to arid regions. However,the diving line of arid area and humid area of these areas does not show obvious change. The moisture regions in north China plain also change. The diving lines among arid areas,humid areas,semi-humid areas,and humid areas,are all moving to northwest. The diving line in the southern area in China almost has no change basically. In a word,based on the meteorological data stimulated by Had CM3,the climate will change into much warmness and wetness in most regions of china,except for northeast China. And the trend of climate change has been cognized in detail in the study so that our human can take measures to adapt this change in the feature.