基于最大熵原理的顺层边坡地震模糊可靠度分析

Seismic Fuzzy Reliability Analysis of Bedding Slope Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

考虑地震作用和边坡失稳的模糊性,运用最大熵方法对顺层岩质边坡的地震模糊可靠度进行计算;采用拟静力法,将地震荷载简化成水平方向和竖直方向的惯性力,考虑顺层岩质边坡极限状态的模糊性,建立顺层岩质边坡的模糊极限状态方程;运用最大熵原理,通过数据样本估计出最接近真实情况的概率密度分布,充分利用随机变量的高阶矩信息,推导地震作用下顺层岩质边坡的模糊失效概率的表达式;结合工程实例,通过计算,得出模糊失效概率。计算结果表明:该方法收敛速度快,计算效率高,更加符合工程实际,能广泛运用于实际工程中的模糊可靠性分析。

The maximum entropy method was applied to calculating the seismic： fuzzy reliability of bedding slope with the seismic action and the fuzziness of slope instability considered. By pseudo-static method, the seismic load was simplified into horizontal and vertical inertial force and the fuzzy limit state equation was established with the fuzziness of the limit states considered. The maximum entropy principle was applied to estimate the probability density distribution which was closest to reality and the higher order moments of the random variable information were fully used to calculate the fuzzy failure proba- bility of bedding rock slope under seismic load, An example was analyzed and the fuzzy failure probability was calculated. The results from a case study indicate that the method with a fast convergence and a high calculation efficiency which more complies with engineering practice can be widely used in fuzzy reliability analysis of practical engineering.