农村劳动力转移对中国耕地种植结构的影响

Effect of labor migration on cultivated land planting structure in rural China

探讨农村劳动力转移对中国耕地种植结构的影响,对快速城镇化背景下耕地种植结构的调整有重要意义。该文基于2014-2015年对中国13个省1 580个农户的大样本调查数据,对影响耕地种植结构的各种因素进行多元回归模型估计,以检验农村劳动力转移对中国耕地种植结构的影响。结果表明:1)在被调查农户中,80.4%的农户种植了粮食作物,户均种植面积达0.84 hm2;37.2%的农户种植了至少1种经济作物,户均种植面积为0.29 hm2。经济作物占总种植面积的比例达到13.77%,在各类经济作物中,种植户数和面积最多的是蔬菜和水果。2)农村劳动力转移降低了农地投资强度和经济作物的种植比例,耕地种植结构随着外出务工地与家庭间的距离而不同。在县内或省外务工的家庭种植经济作物的比例和户均种植面积都较小。3)农户的农业种植和投资行为同时受到土地资源因素、家庭成员特征、社会资本因素以及市场和政策因素的影响。人地矛盾突出地区的农户倾向于种植经济作物,村庄集中灌溉设施的建设对蔬菜种植有正向影响,而对水果种植呈负向影响,地权稳定性对农户在耕地上的地均投资和经济作物种植有显著的正向影响;家庭成员特征对农户的农业种植和投资行为影响较大;社会资本对蔬菜种植具有正向影响,而对水果种植和农地投资强度影响并不显著;由到城市/县城的距离所表征的市场因素对蔬菜和水果种植比例均呈负向影响;土地流转对蔬菜的种植有正向影响,而对水果种植有负向影响,专业合作社对水果种植呈正向影响,但对蔬菜种植影响不显著。该研究可为中国耕地种植结构的优化与调整提供参考。

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of rural labor migration on planting structure in China byusing multivariate regression models, which had great significance for the adjustment of planting structure under thebackground of rapid urbanization. The data came from a nationwide questionnaire survey conducted in 2014 and 2015. Thetotal number of valid household questionnaires was 1580 from 13 provinces, which involved 100 villages in 25 counties. Thesesurvey sites covered all main geographic and economic regions across China and the representativeness of the sample couldthus be fully guaranteed. The results indicated： 1） Approximately 80.4% of the 1580 households planted grain crops and about37.2% of the households planted at least one kind of cash crop, such as vegetable, fruit, cotton, and medicinal herb. Thecultivation area of cash crops accounted for 13.77% of the total planting area. 2） In general, rural labor migration hadsignificant negative effects on the investment intensity of farmland and the proportion of cash crops in total planting area.However, the significance varied with the migration distance, namely, the households with members working outside theirhome provinces or near their home villages were more likely to plant fewer cash crops than others. 3） Separate regression forhouseholds located around and far away from cities and for those in plains and mountainous areas indicated different impactsof labor migration on agricultural planting and investments in various regions. This regional heterogeneity fully demonstratedthe moderating effects of geography and market factors in determining the planting behaviors of rural households. 4） Theabundance, quality, and tenure of land resources were important factors influencing the planting behavior of Chinese ruralhouseholds. Households in regions with denser population, less per capitafarmland area and larger proportion of mountainousarea tended to plant more cash crops and invest more capital on the farmland. The improvement of irrigation facilities couldsignificantly improve the planting proportion of vegetables. The land tenure security also had positive influence on theinvestment intensity of farmland and the proportion of cash crops. 5） The planting structure was also influenced significantlyby demographic characteristics of rural households, such as the family size, the number of children in the family and the ageand education level of the household head. The social capital of rural households was proven to have significant positive effecton the planting of vegetables, but not on the planting of fruits or the investment intensity of farmland. 6） Households invillages near to a city often had larger proportions of cash crops in total planting area and higher levels of investment intensityon farmland than those in remote areas, representing the importance of market proximity and information accessibility indetermining the planting structure in rural China. The 2 rural policies introduced by the central government and vigorouslypromoted by local governments had different influences on the planting behavior of rural households. Specifically, theeffective implementation of farmland transfer could significantly encourage farmers to plant more cash crops by learning fromthe behavior of agricultural investors from outside of the village, while the development of rural specialized cooperatives didnot have similar positive effects on the improvement of rural planting structure or farmland investment. Therefore, this studycan provide a reference for the optimization and adjustment ofcultivated landplanting structure in China.