2017年1月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,January 2017

目的评估2017年1月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计2017年1月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较2016年12月有所下降,事件类别主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻等传染病事件为主。近期我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,不排除出现H7N9禽流感聚集性病例以及人感染其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的可能。流行性感冒、水痘、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。病毒性腹泻暴发疫情将持续发生,且诺如病毒仍将为主要致病原。寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险持续存在,输入后在南方蚊媒条件适宜的地区仍有引发本地传播的风险,但导致大规模本地传播的风险极低。中东呼吸综合征从沙特等中东国家输入我国的风险持续存在,但导致大规模疫情的风险低。因燃煤取暖导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件正处于高发时段。结论 2017年1月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较少的月份之一;需关注人感染禽流感、流行性感冒、病毒性腹泻、寨卡病毒病、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in January 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be lower in January 2017 than in December 2016. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A（ H7N9） virus would continue to occur,and the possibilities of clustering of human infections with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza viruses still exist. The incidences of seasonal influenza,varicella,mumps and other respiratory diseases would increase. Viral diarrhea outbreak would continue with norovirus as main pathogen. The importation of Zika virus disease to China might occur and cause local transmission in southern China where climate condition is suitable,but large scale transmission risk is low. The risk of importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome（ MERS）from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries to China still exist,but the risk of wide transmission is low. It is the high incidence season of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning due to coal fired heating. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be at a lower level in January 2017,similar to the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus,seasonal influenza,viral diarrhea,Zika virus disease and MERS.