城镇化与收入结构对农村居民消费的影响——基于省级面板数据的分析

The impact of urbanization and income structure on rural residents' consumption:analysis based on provincial panel data

基于2000-2013年的省际面板数据,运用面板平滑转换模型分析了城镇化如何通过改变农村居民的收入结构进而影响其消费行为的路径。结果显示:城镇化对农村消费的影响具有收入结构的平滑转换特征,当工资收入比重超过0.31时,城镇化快速地促进了农村居民消费的增长,而当工资收入比重达到0.37后,消费支出弹性微弱地增长并缓慢爬升到峰值0.65;当经营收入比重下降到0.64时,城镇化对农村居民消费影响的支出弹性出现较快的增长,而当经营收入比重降到0.36后,消费支出弹性缓慢地增长到峰值0.78;农业税的减免和人均财政教育经费支出的增长显著地促进了农村居民消费的增长,而人均财政医疗经费支出的增加对消费增长的影响并不显著。

Based on provincial panel data in China from2000 to 2013,this essay studies how urbanization affects the consumption by changing the income structure of the rural residents using Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model. The results show that the influence of urbanization on consumption has the characteristics of the smooth transition of income structure,and urbanization promotes the growth of consumption rapidly when the proportion of wage income exceeds 0. 31,but when it reaches 0. 37,the elasticity of consumer spending rises slightly to a peak of 0. 65. While the proportion of family operating income is less than 0. 64,the elasticity of consumption increases rapidly,and the elasticity of consumption rises to the peak of 0. 78 after the proportion of operating income fells to 0. 36. Besides,the reduction of agricultural tax and the increase of expenditure on education from public finance significantly promotes the growth of consumption of rural residents,but the expenditure on health care from finance is not significant in influencing the consumption growth.