中国城镇化的空间动力机制与效应——基于第六次人口普查2869个县域单元数据

Spatial Dynamic Mechanism and Effect of Urbanization in China Based on Spatial Unit Data of 2869 Counties Derived from the Sixth Census

城镇化是一个空间现象。如何揭示与测度城镇化的空间动力机制,是经济地理学的一大难题。本文利用我国第六次人口普查的2869个区县域单元(县,区,市)城镇化率数据,通过构造空间动态计量模型揭示我国城镇化的空间动力机制。结果显示,以城市人口、人口迁入、工业化、地理位置为控制变量,我国城镇化具有稳健的二阶空间滞后动力机制。这表明,城镇化形成空间动力系统,一个县域单元的城镇化受周边两县域单元城镇化的促进。在城镇化空间动力效应作用下,我国已形成北部与东南部两个高城镇化区域,大西南区域的城镇化水平仍较低。因此,我国要加大力度促进"南方丝绸之路"城市群建设,重塑城镇化经济地理,促进城镇化的区域协调发展。

Abstract ： Urbanization is a phenomenon of space, how to reveal the space dynamic mechanism of urbanization is a major difficult problem of geography. In this paper, using the 2869 county urbanization rate data of our sixth census, by constructing dynamic spatial econometric model reveals the space dynamic mechanism of urbanization in China. The results show that to urban population, population migration, industrialization, geographical location as a control variable, urbanization in china still has a robust spatial second-order lag dynamic mechanism and urbanization formation a spatial dynamic system, it is shown that a county urbanization is promoted by two surrounding counties. Under the effect of the dynamic effect of urbanization, the high level of urbanization in the north and the south has formed and big Southwest regional urbanization level is still relatively low. Therefore, China should intensify efforts to promote the construction of the＂ Southern Silk Road＂ urban agglomeration, reshape the economic geography of the city, and promote coordinated development of regional urbanization.