中国经济增长和波动的倒U型关系:杠杆率非对称变化机制视角

Inverted U Shape Relationship between China's Economic Growth and Fluctuations: the Perspective of Leverage Ratio Asymmetrical Change Mechism

基于AABM模型,构建理论模型分析了中国经济短期波动对长期增长趋势的非线性影响,并基于1979—2012年省际面板数据对中国经济长期增长趋势和短期经济波动之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现:第一,长期经济增长趋势和短期经济波动之间的关系为非线性关系,这主要是因为短期经济波动对不同企业或项目杠杆率的影响是非对称的;第二,总体来看,中国经济短期波动和长期增长趋势之间呈倒U型关系,分地区来看,在东部地区,经济增长和经济波动呈U型关系,在非东部地区,经济增长和经济波动呈倒U型关系。短期来看,经济波动过于剧烈时,政府出台平稳经济的政策将有助于提高经济增速。长期来看,政府应当减少对市场的行政干预,发挥经济波动的清理效应。

Based on the AABM model, this paper built a theoretical model to analyze the nonlinear influence of short- term fluctuations in Chinese economy on long-term growth trends. And we empirically analyzed the relationship between them based on the provincial panel data from 1979 to 2012 of China＇s economic. The study found that： first, there is a nonlinear relationship between short-term economic fluctuations and long-term growth trends; second, in the total sample, the relationship between growth trends and fluctuations is inverted u-shaped, in the east, the relationship is u- shaped, in the Midwest, the relationship is inverted u-shaped. In the short term, the government＇s stable economic policy will help to boost economic growth if the economic fluctuation is too intense. In the long term, the government should reduce administrative intervention in the market and utilize the cleaning effect of economic fluctuations.