民族地区代际收入流动及其影响因素——基于南疆地区的实证研究

The Intergenerational Income Mobility and Influencing Factors in Ethnic Regions-Empirical Research on the Southern Xinjiang

文章引入分析子代与父代收入位置对比的绝对和相对指标,借助双向排序法,利用对南疆地区15年的跟踪调查数据,分析了民族地区代际收入流动性特征,并使用因素分解法对影响代际收入流动性变化的因素及其影响程度进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)子女收入排序与父母收入排序近乎完全线性关系,即南疆地区收入流动性具有很强的代际传递特征;(2)南疆地区低收入家庭代际传递具有较强的固化特征,且有向中等收入家庭延伸态势,而高收入家庭绝对流动性得以保持,因而有贫富分化加剧趋势;(3)远离城市的乡镇其代际收入流动性更低,喀什市作为唯一的地级市,其代际收入流动性最高;(4)父代受教育年限、少数民族身份、工资性收入和地区经济发展水平对家庭收入流动性有显著影响,且因家庭收入分位数不同影响程度存在差异。

Based on the survey data of 15 years in the southern Xinjiang, this article introduces absolute and relative indexes of children's income rank position relative to parent's rank with a two-way sorting method, and makes a comprehensive analysis of characteristics of intergenerational income mobility in these ethnic regions. Further, it uses the factorization method to discuss the influencing factors of intergenerational income mobility changes and its influencing degree. The results show that the region's intergenerational income rankings are linear correlative, and it suggests a strong income ranking transmission between the generations. The intergenerational transmission of low-income families have a stronger persisting characteristic, and the intergeneration ranking among high income families keeps absolute liquidity so that the mobility gaps between the rich and poor are increasing. The family intergenerational income rank mobility is much lower in the regions where are away from cities, so Kashi as a prefecture city has the highest income rank mobility. Furthermore, the years of parent's education, ethnic, wage, regional GDP have main significant influences on household income mobility, and the influences are various among different household income ranking positions.