长江三角洲地区农村居民体育消费结构ELES模型分析

Characteristics and Development Trend of Sports Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in Yangtze River Delta Region

运用文献资料、问卷调查、数理统计等方法,以扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES模型)为分析工具,对长江三角洲地区农村居民体育消费结构特征与发展趋势进行分析。研究显示,长江三角洲地区农村居民体育消费结构构成比存在非常显著性差异,具有明显的年龄、性别、教育、收入等特征,呈现出以"体育参与类"消费项目为主的发展倾向。在"基本体育消费结构"方面,农村居民对于不同项目的体育基本需求支出比例呈非常显著性差异,其中"体育实物类"消费项目消费支出占比较高,"体育参与类、娱乐类"消费支出占比相对较低。在"边际消费倾向"方面,长江三角洲地区农村居民体育边际消费倾向为0.124 989,其中"体育参与类、娱乐类"项目边际消费倾向高于"体育实物类"消费品。在"收入弹性"方面,"体育参与类、娱乐类"消费项目的收入弹性系数均大于1,其消费支出增长幅度大于农村居民收入增加幅度,将成为农村居民体育消费的热点。在"价格弹性"方面,各类体育消费品"自价格弹性系数"介于"-0.253 627^-0.925 218",价格上涨会影响自身需求量。各类体育消费品"交叉弹性系数"介于"-0.000 342^-0.019 751",其中"体育运动服装"项目的交叉价格弹性系数最大,其价格变化能够对其他类别体育消费品产生一定影响。最后提出了优化农村居民体育消费结构的现实路径。

Through literature study, mathematical statistics and based on the theory of sociology and economics, the linear expenditure system model （ELES model）, the dynamic changes of sports consumption structure of rural residents were studied. The results showed that the sports consumption structure of rural residents in the Yangtze River Delta was sig- nificantly different （X2= 1 290. 393,P〈0. 01）, with regard to different ages, genders, education backgrounds, and levels of income etc. Consumptions were likely to be more on taking sports or going for recreational activities. In terms of ＂basic sports consumption structure＂, residents in rural areas spent differently on different kinds of sports events （X2 = 1 842. 499,P〈0. 01）. They spent the most on sports goods and less on taking sports and recreational activities, relatively low. In terms of the marginal propensity of sports consumption, the marginal propensity to consume of rural residents in the Yangtze River Delta region is 0. 124 989, and ＂sports participation, entertainment type＂ project marginal propensity to consume is higher than ＂sports in kind＂ consumer goods. In terms of income elasticity, the income elasticity of ＂sports participation, entertainment type＂ project is more than 1. The increase in consumer demand has exceeded the growth rate of income. In terms of price elasticity, the price elasticity coefficient of all kinds of sports consumer goods is between-0. 253 627～-0. 925 218, rising prices will affect their demand, The cross elasticity coefficient of all kinds of sports consumer goods is between -0. 000 342～ -0. 019 751. The cross price elasticity coefficient of ＂Sports clothing＂ has a great influence, the price changes can have a certain impact on other categories of sports consumer goods. Finally put forward the promotion of rural resident sports consumption structure optimization and upgrading of the real path.