我看2017

Focus: views 2017

回眸2016，全球航运业随着一系列重大新闻事件的发生，整个行业的格局随之发生了种种变化。进入2017，行业将会有哪些未知在等待着我们？在充满不确定的世界中，虽然没有水晶球可以准确预见未来，但行业专家可以为我们调察及剖析那些确定性程度较高的发展趋势。

Looking back at 2016, as a series of major news events occur, we could find that a variety of changes of the global pattern of the shipping industry has taken place. In 2017, what will the industry be and what is unknown waiting for us? In a world full of uncertainty, although there is no crystal ball which can predict the future accurately, the industry experts can insight into and analyze the development trend of the high degree of certainty for us.It is difficult to realize the rapid recovery of the container liner market in the short term, but compared with some recovery it will be a big probability event. The container liner enterprises level may face more adjustments in the next 2-3 years. 2017 will be the second year of the seaborne volume of bulk carrier meets continuous increase. Due to uncertainty in the external environment, owner and charterer will continue to support the spot market, which will have certain help to the seasonal peak of freight market. Whether the future market can rise or not, it will depend entirely on the controllability of fleet growth. Back in 2016, CCFI presented the movements of "V" type throughout the year, the average being just 710.96 points, falling 18.80% compared with 2015, which is the lowest average CCFI index since its launch. Looking ahead to 2017, we find that CCFI index is still expected to be in a constant low adjustment phase, but some recovery will be a big probability event.It could be said to be ups and downs for the global dry bulk shipping market in 2016. Earlier this year,the rate fell to the record lows, while bulk shipowners can only choose to cancel or postpone the new ship orders after all sorts of difficulties such as ship spare and cash flow pressure stage. With the advent of the third shipbreaking historical peak, shipping prices have fallen to historic lows, which leads banks take ship as bad assets to sell. What's more, the new ship orders contract had broken the lowest records since 2001.At the end of 2016, the dry bulk market rent was up slightly but the rent of Panamax rose to the highest since January 2014.The growth of China's iron ore and coal imports, the demand for food in the Atlantic route and related ship shortage, the rise of the owner in low-priced second-hand ship market trading volume, the great reduction of the new ship orders and so on, all which is the main reason of shipping prices remain low and suddenly rebound to the high at the end of the year since February last year. In addition, the Brexit and Trump becoming the next President of the United States and the longawaited new Panama Canal locks coming into use, etc., has injected with uncertainty for the dry bulk market.It is expected in 2017, the international shipping market environment will still be very bad. "Survival" has become the primary task of the world's major shipbuilding enterprises.As for port, shipping finance has got further diversified financing channels. Cost reduction is the key for logistics. It is expected that the national total sum of social logistics growth is at about 6%, the social logistics total cost growth is around 4%, and the ratio of social logistics total cost and GDP maintains stability with a slight decline in 2017. Looking from several respects, such as the logistics demand and supply subject, infrastructure, resources, development mode, growth impetus and policy environment, we can find profound changes will occur. In 2016, our country's logistics industry was in the stabilization of the overall running slow, steady positive and China's logistics prosperity index annual average 55.2%, increased by 0.2% compared with last year; after September, it remained at 60% up and down and went into the high cycle interval, showing a strong recovery.