酝酿中的贸易战?

Is a trade war brewing?

经济增长放缓的中国不需要与美国发生深度和延展的贸易争端，货主也是。

A slowing China doesn't need a deep, protracted trade dispute with theUS, and neither do shippers. The shadow of Donald Trump's presidency hangs over Asia's largest economy, even as China battles slowing growth and waning demand as the country shifts from an export manufacturingled model to domestic consumption and services. China's GDP growth is forecast to be to 6.4 percent this year, robust by developed nation standards, but down from the 6.6 percent growth expected in 2016. Consumer spending on the back of steadily growing incomes has been the main driver of growth, and even as this continues, there will be spikes in manufacturing activity, as there was in December, when China factory production expanded at its fastest pace in nearly six years. A closer look at China's historical trade data, however, shows that even as exports declined because of weaker global demand, China's proportion of global exports rose to 13.8 percent in 2015 from 12.3 percent in 2014. The US is China's main export partner with an 18 percent share, which means China accounts for a significant share of the US trade deficit. This featured heavily in the presidential campaign during which Trump promised to renegotiate trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and scrap the Trans Pacific Partnership with 12 Pacific Rim countries that has been signed off but ratified only by Japan. In a report, Deutsche Bank said headline trade data suggested that China accounted for half of the US trade deficit in 2015. This, the bank said, was misleading because approximately 37 percent of China's exports to the US consisted of parts imported from other Asian countries. How the US trade policy on China plays out remains to be seen, but it's unlikely Trump actually wants a trade war with China. The calls for tough action and the appointment of harsh China critics is more likely aimed at getting Beijing to the negotiating table to talk about how to lower the US trade deficit and increase China's imports of US goods. But for cargo owners, it adds another layer of uncertainty to a year that is already full of risk: slow trade growth, disruptions from container line mergers, huge carrier losses, and redrawn alliances that start in April. More disruption is the last thing shippers need as 2017 gets under way.