城乡统筹背景下重庆市水生态足迹分析及预测

Assessment and Forecast on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources in Chongqing Under Coordinating Urban and Rural Background

为研究城乡统筹背景下重庆市水生态足迹情况,利用水生态足迹模型,分析了重庆市2000—2014年水生态足迹和水资源承载力,运用GRNN模型预测了2015—2018年城乡人均水生态足迹与人均水资源承载力。结果表明,12000—2014年重庆市水生态足迹总体呈上升趋势,由0.093 2亿hm^2增长到0.143 5亿hm^2。水资源承载力受降水量的影响,整体波动较大。水生态压力指数介于0.115 6~0.235 9之间,远小于1,水资源开发利用空间大。2城乡水生态足迹与水资源承载力有差异:农村总水生态足迹大于城市,但人均水生态足迹小于城市。农村总水资源承载力与人均水资源承载力均大于城市。城市水生态压力指数大于农村,但二者都小于1,说明城市水资源利用程度高,但城市发展对水资源的压力也大。3预计2015—2018年重庆市城乡人均水生态足迹总体上都呈上升态势,城市人均水生态足迹将由0.386 64 hm^2增长到0.409 62 hm^2,增长了6%。农村人均水生态足迹将由0.276 50 hm^2增长到0.336 57 hm^2,增长了22%。城乡人均水资源承载力在一定范围内相对稳定,水生态足迹增长将威胁水资源可持续利用。在充分考虑重庆市水资源的时空分布基础上,优化产业结构、转变发展方式、统筹城乡布局,可促进重庆社会经济可持续发展。

In order to explore the ecological foot of water in Chongqing under the background of urban and rural, the water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity in the period of 2000--- 2014 in Chongqing were analyzed according to the basic principle and calculation model of water resources eco- logical footprint. Then, the water resources ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita in 2015--2018 of urban and rural areas were predicted by GRNN model. The results showed that the water resources ecological footprint increased from 9.32 million square hectometer to 14.35 million square hectometer in period of 2000--2014. The water resources carrying capacity was affected by precipitation, so the overall fluc- tuation was larger. Water ecological pressure index was between 0.115 6-0.235 9, far less than 1, which indicated that the space of water resources development and utilization was large. The water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity between urban and rural were different, that was to say that the total water ecological footprint in rural areas was more than that in city, but the water footprint per capita was less than that in city. The total water resources carrying capacity and water resources carrying per capita in rural area were more than that in city. The water ecological pressure indexes of urban and rural were both less than 1, but the water ecological pressure index of urban was higher than that in rural area, which indicated that the present de- velopment and utilization degree of water resources in urban was high, but the pressure of development on water resources in urban was also great. It was predicted that the water ecological footprints per capita of urban and ru- ral areas in Chongqing from 2015 to 2018 were on the rise. The water ecological footprint per capita in urban in- creased from 0.385 74 square hectometer to 0.409 62 square hectometer, increasing by 7%. The water ecological footprint per capita in rural increased from 0.276 5 square hectometer to 0.336 57 square hectometer, increasing by 22%. The water resources carrying capacity per capita in urban and rural areas were relatively stable in a cer- tain range, so the growth of water ecological footprint would threaten the sustainable utilization of water resourc- es. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in Chongqing, the industrial structures, trans- form the development pattern and balance urban and rural layout should be optimized to promote the sustainable development of social economy in Chongqing.