基于RA-MCS-SD的区域电网运行维护费测算及评价模型

Calculating and Evaluation Model for Regional Power Grid Operation and Maintenance Costs Based on RA-MCS-SD

引入回归分析(regression analysis,RA)、蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo simulation,MCS)和系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)方法构建基于RA-MCS-SD的区域电网运行维护费测算及分析评价模型:通过RA建立运行维护费与主要影响因素的函数关系;运用MCS构建未来数年的运行维护费测算模型;基于SD模型定量分析评价影响运行维护费的各因素之间动态关系。案例分析结果表明该模型科学有效。同时,由模型验证分析可知:除新增建变电和线路规模外,最高负荷是影响区域电网运行维护费的最主要因素,而售电量的增长并不一定带来利润的同比增长,需要持续提升运行维护管理水平,有效降低成本。

This paper introduces regression analysis （RA）, Monte Carlo simulation （MCS） and system dynamics （SD） method to construct calculating and analysis evaluation model for regional power grid operation and maintenance costs. It constructs function relationship between operation and maintenance costs and main influencing factors by using RA method, builds cal- culating model for operation and maintenance costs in future years by using MCS and quantitatively analyzes dynamic rela- tionship between various influencing factors based on SD model. Analysis results prove scientificity and effectiveness of this model. Meanwhile, it draws conclusions that besides newly established substations and lines, the highest load is the main fac- tor influencing operation and maintenance costs of the regional power grid, while growth of electricity sales amount maybe not bring about the same percentage increase of profits. It points out to persistently promote management level for operation and maintenance and effectively reduce costs.