中部地区承接产业转移与城市化的互动效应研究——基于2009～2014年安徽省地级市的数据检验

The Urbanization Effects and Empirical Research of Undertaking Industrial Transfer in the Central and Western China Regions

借鉴系统动力学分析模型,建立了区际产业转移推动转入地城市化进程的理论分析框架。基于安徽省2009-2014年地级市的面板数据,以省外投资形成的资本存量来度量产业转移,通过构建联立方程模型实证检验了承接产业转移与城市化进程之间的互动关系。研究发现:产业转移与城市化之间存在内生性的关系,二者之间均存在正向的相互关系,且城市化在其中处于主导地位;此外,对外开放程度、教育水平、城乡收入差距对城市化的影响均是正向显著的,而国有产值比重对城市化的影响却是反向显著的;地区经济发展的规模和产业转移的路径依赖效应则对产业转移的影响是正向显著的。

Using the system dynamics analysis model, established the theoretical analysis framework of the regional industrial transfer to promote the process of urbanization. Based on the panel data of Anhui province 2009-2014 prefecture level city, to form the investment of capital stock to measure industrial transfer, by building a simultaneous equation model empirically check the interactive relationship between undertaking industrial transfer and the urbanization process. It is found that there is a positive relationship between the industrial transfer and the urbanization, and the relationship between the two is positive, and the urbanization is in the leading position. In addition, the degree of opening up to the outside world, education level, income gap between urban and rural areas on the influence of urbanization are positive and significant, and state-owned production value proportion of urbanization＇s influence is reverse significant; regional economic development scale and industry transfer path dependent effect of industry transfer effect is positive and significant.