基于区间分析的鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力研究

Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Ordos City Based on Interval Analysis

为应对内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市能源化工产业快速发展所导致的水资源供需矛盾,利用系统动力学软件STELLA建立鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力模型,模拟了该市2008—2020年水资源承载力的动态变化,并采用区间分析处理这一过程中的不确定性。研究结果表明:未来一段时间内农业依然是鄂尔多斯市的用水大户;协调发展模式兼顾水资源配置的经济与环境效益,是可行性最高的方案;到2020年,单位水资源量所支撑的人口规模相比现状年(2013年)变化幅度小,而经济规模明显增长,经济系统用水效率逐步提高;该区域的水资源供需平衡指数由2014年的[0.20,0.23]到2020年的[0.18,0.35],总体呈增大趋势。

Inorder to solve the conflicts between water supply and demand caused by the rapid development of energy and chemical industry in Ordos City,an evaluation model for water resources carrving capacity was established through the adoption ofasystem dynamics software （ STELLA） to simulate dynamic variations in water resources carrving capacity over 2008 to 2020 in Ordos City. Furthermore,interval analy-sis method was taken to tackle with the uncertainties embedded inthe evaluationof water resources carrving capacity in Ordos City. The results indicate that agricultural sector still consumes the majority of water resources of this city. Taking into account the economic and environmental benefits, the solution under the coordinated development mode is the most feasible comparing with those under scenarios of prioritizing eco-nomic development scenarios. In 2020,population size supported by per unit water will have no significant change. Comparatively,economic- scale will be expanded. Water utilizing efficiency of the economic sub-system will be improved gradually. As water supply-demand balance in- dexchanges from [ 0.20,0.23 ] to [ 0.18, 0.3 5 ] over 2014 to 2020,it is proved that available water resources can support social-economic de-velopment over theplanning years.