南极平均温度的聚类分析及预测

Cluster analysis and prediction for the average temperature in Antarctica

南极是研究全球变暖问题的典型地区,由于南极所处的纬度以及其特殊的地理风貌、自然气候,所以研究南极以往的实测资料就显得尤为重要。本文利用英国南极调查局网站,得到2000-2015年的实测温度资料。由于观测点的温度可能受不同因素的影响,我们通过聚类分析,把观测点进行分类。然后建立时间序列模型,对不同类别的观测点进行温度变化规律的探讨,得到南极的平均气温。最后我们应用时间序列分析方法,研究南极地表温度与时间之间的变化规律。

Antarctica is a sensitive area of global change,because of the special geographic location of the Antarctic and unique natural environment. Analysis of the data observed in the Antarctic also has a very important significance.We get the 2000-2015 measured temperature data from the British Antarctic survey site.Because the observation point temperature may be affected by the impact of different factors,we use cluster analysis and then classify the observation points. Then we establish the time series model to search the temperature variations of observation points for different categories,to get the Antarctica＇s average temperature.At last,we use time series analysis method to study the Antarctic surface temperature and time variations.