安徽省地方政府债务风险评价

Evaluation of Local Government Debt Risk in Anhui Province

2009年我国地方政府重启债务发行工作以来,各级地方政府债务规模在逐年扩大。在经济发展新模式下,导致地方政府债务扩大的原因也变得多样化。地方政府债务总量快速增长导致其偿债压力越来越大,面临的信用风险也在逐步增加。本文通过分析导致地方政府债务风险增加的原因,运用KMV模型对安徽省地方政府债务风险进行合理评估并指出当前安徽省政府债务风险等级。

In 2009, with China’s local governments to restart work on debt issuance, local government debt scale at all levels expanded year by year. In the new mode of economic development, the cause of local government debt expansion has become diversified. The rapid growth of the total amount of local government debts has led to increasing pressure on its debts？ and the credit risk is gradually increasing. Under the background of current economic development and based on the analyses of the causes of local government debt risk,in this paper,we use KMV model to assess the risk of local government debts in Anhui province and point out the current level of government debt risk.