数值预报模式在新疆塔城地区降水预报中的检验

Test and Comparative Analysis on Precipitation Forecast Based on Several Numerical Forecast Models in Tacheng of Xinjiang

利用德国、日本、T639、EC细网格模式降水预报资料,采用客观分析和T_S评分检验方法对2012年1月至2016年3月塔城地区降水的预报效果进行检验和对比分析。结果表明:EC细网格模式对盆地强降水中心、最大降水量、降水开始及结束时间预报的T_S评分最高,T_S评分次高为南部地区,而和丰地区最差;德国模式对盆地降水落区预报的T_S评分最高,EC细网格模式对南部及和丰地区降水落区预报的T_S评分最高;除和丰外,4种模式对塔城地区冷季降水预报的T_S评分均高于暖季,对24 h各级别降雪预报的T_S评分高于降雨;随着预报时效延长、降水量级增大,4种模式对24—72 h降雨(雪)及24 h各级别降雨(雪)的预报准确率随之下降,其中24 h降雨(雪)、小雨(雪)的T_S评分最高。

Based on precipitation forecast data from Germany, Japan, T639 and EC - thin grid patterns, the forecast effects of precipitation were tested and analyzed comparatively. The results show that the ^（test score） of EC - thin pattern was the highest about the center of heavy rainfall and maximum precipitation as well as beginning or ending time of rainfall in the Tacheng basin, the Ts of EC - thin pattern about those in southern Tacheng was the second, and it was lowest in Hefeng. The Ts of German pattern about rainfall area was highest in the Tacheng basin, while the Ts of EC - thin pattern about rainfall area was best in southern Tacheng and Hefeng. Except for Hefeng station, the forecast effects of four patterns about precipitation were better in cold season than those in warm season. With the extension of time and increase of rainfall grades, the forecast effects of four patterns decreased in 24 -72 hours. The test score of four patterns about light rain （ snow） in 24 hours was highest.