滇池流域的气候变化特征、预估及其影响

Observed (1961-2014) and Projected (2016-2100) Climate Change and Its Influence on Water Environment in the Dianchi Lake Basin

利用1961—2014年滇池流域6个代表站点的降水和气温资料及多模式集成的2016—2100年不同排放情境下气候变化模拟实验的预估结果,分析滇池流域过去54a降水和气温的变化,并预估未来85a该流域的气候变化趋势。分析表明,过去54a滇池流域年降水量总体呈不显著的下降趋势,而年平均气温和年平均最高(低)气温呈显著上升趋势。预估显示,未来85a在不同排放情境下,滇池流域的降水总体呈增加趋势,其中前25a降水量偏少,中后期逐渐转为偏多。不同季节流域降水距平百分率变幅从大到小依次是冬>夏>春>秋;滇池流域年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温均呈上升趋势,不同季节流域气温增幅依次为春>夏>秋>冬。预估提示未来滇池流域春季气温上升现象尤其明显,需特别关注春季异常偏暖对流域水环境的影响。

Based on the observation dada of precipitation and temperature from 1961 to 2014 and the projected data from 2016 to 2100 in the Dianchi Lake basin, the annual and seasonal changes of precipitation and temperature in the past 50 years were analyzed, and the climatic tendencies were predicted in the next 85 years using the multi - model ensemble under the CRP26、CRP45 and CRP85 scenarios in the 21st century. The results indicated that the annual precipitation has been decreasing in the past 50 years,which wasn ’ t statistically significant however. The mean annual and seasonal temperatures increased significantly during the same time period. The precipitation under each scenario had obvious growing tendency in the next 85 years. The increasing rates of seasonal precipitation were in the order of winter, sum-mer, spring and autumn from high to low. The mean temperatures have obvious rising tendency in the future. The sea-sonal temperature rates were in the order of spring, summer, autumn and winter. It was found that the spring would be-come much warmer in the next 85 years than other seasons. This would affect the water environment.