国际油价冲击对中国企业出口增长的影响

The Impact of International Oil Price Shocks on Export Growth of China

本文把油价冲击分解方法和出口增长分解方法相结合,使用中国工业企业数据库和中国专利数据库的匹配数据,运用生存分析方法、面板回归方法和Probit回归方法研究油价冲击对企业出口长度、出口深度和出口广度的影响。结果表明:三种冲击对企业出口长度都有负向的影响;石油供给冲击对企业出口深度有负向的影响,经济总需求冲击对企业出口深度有正向的影响;石油供给冲击对企业出口广度有负向的影响,经济总需求冲击和石油特定需求冲击对企业出口广度有正向的影响。本文还按照能源强度和要素密集度对企业进行归类并分别做了实证检验。最后,本文提出了识别油价冲击的来源,增加企业出口的政策建议。

By decomposing the crude oil price and export growth,the paper uses the survival analysis,the panel analysis and the Probit regression model to study the impact of oil shocks on export length,depth and breadth with matching data from the Chinese patent database and industrial enterprise database. The results show that three types of oil shocks have negative impacts on export length of Chinese enterprises. Crude oil supply shocks have negative impacts on export depth,while shocks to the aggregate global demand for industrial commodities have positive impacts on export depth. Crude oil supply shocks has negative impacts on export breadth of Chinese enterprises,whereas shocks to the aggregate global demand for industrial commodities and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market have positive impacts on export breadth. The paper also respectively makes empirical analysis and classification according to energy intensity andfactor intensity of Chinese enterprises. At last,we put forward a few suggestions to identify the sources of oil price shocks and increasethe export.