安徽农业循环经济发展的预测分析

Development Forecast of Agricultural Circular Economy in Anhui Province in China

针对安徽农业循环经济的发展,通过灰色预测、多元线性回归、Box-Jenkins等方法,分别构建了粮食产量Verhulst预测、农药利用率回归分析、农田灌溉水有效利用ARIMA预测等模型,综合运用了MATLAB、EViews等软件编程求解,研究得出2020年之前安徽省粮食产量的增长相对稳定,只有提高农药和化肥的利用效率才能完成2020年化肥和农药零增长的任务以及按照现有发展水平,2020年农田灌溉水有效利用系数将会达到0.5257,无法完成国家预期目标等结论,并向有关部门提出关于发展循环经济的合理化建议。

Aiming at the development of agricultural circular economy in Anhui, by grey prediction, multiple linear regression, Box - Jenkins, we established respectively models of Verhulst prediction of grain output, regression analysis of pesticides utilization efficiency. With MATLAB and EViews software ,we got the conclusion that there is a relatively stable growth of grain before 2020 in Anhui province . The improvement of efficiency of pesticide and fertilizer to complete the task of chemical fertilizers and pesticides zero growth in 2020 and that farmland irrigation water use coefficient will reach O. 5257 in 2020 according to the existing level of de- velopment. We put forward some suggestions on how to promote the development of circular economy in Anhui province.