摘要
利用海气耦合大气环流模式Had CM3为PRECIS提供初始场和边界条件,驱动PRECIS模拟产生SRES A1B情景下的区域气候情景数据,分析了中国区域1961—2100年降水、气温的变化。结果表明:在SRES A1B情景下,中国区域未来降水量、气温总体呈现明显上升趋势,气温中日最低气温增幅最大,日最高气温增幅最小;21世纪前半叶(2011—2040年)到中叶(2041—2070年)期间,降水量、气温增加速率达到最高;降水在总体增加趋势中呈现出较多局地特征,21世纪后半叶,105°E以东地区出现多个降水增幅大值区;平均气温在未来各时段各区域均表现出升温的整体特征,新疆和东北地区升温幅度最大。
PRECIS is employed to simulate the climate under SRES A1B over China from 1961 to 2100, driven by the output from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model HadCM3 under SRES A1B. With the projected data, the change of precipitation and temperature over China is investigated. It is indicated that： 1. The precipitation and temperature over China show an overall upward trend in future, and as for the magnitude of temperature＇ s increase, the daily minimum/maximum temperature has a largest/smallest increase respectively. 2. The precipitation and temperature show a maximum increase pace from 2020 s （2011-2040） to 2050 s （2041-2070） in all-time. 3. The upward trend of precipitation is character of territorial. 4. Temperature will increase for all areas and all periods in future, especially in Xinjiang and Northeast China, the increase magnitude is the largest.
出处
《海洋预报》
2017年第1期34-46,共13页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC19B10)
