基于层次分析法的浙江电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境敏感性评估

Sensitivity Assessment on Hazard-pregnant Environment of Lightning Trip-out in Zhejiang Power Grid Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Model

为了提高电网雷击跳闸风险评估的有效性和科学性,实现差异化防雷,有必要对电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境进行研究。基于1:50 000数字高程模型(DEM)数据和浙江电网110 kV及以上输电线2005—2013年逐年雷击跳闸事故资料,利用GIS技术提取浙江电网雷击跳闸事故点的地形地貌因子(海拔高度、坡度、坡向、土地利用类型和河网密度),定量化分析了雷击跳闸事故点的地形地貌特征。选取海拔高度、坡度、坡向、土地利用类型和河网密度作为电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境的评价指标,利用层次分析法构建电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境评估模型,绘制了浙江电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境分布图。经过与致灾因子危险度分布相关分析,两者相关系数0.451,这说明孕灾环境分布图是合理的,可用于电网雷击跳闸风险评估。从浙江电网雷击跳闸综合孕灾环境敏感度分布图可知,浙北北部和浙东沿海是浙江电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境的高敏感区;浙中和浙西地区是浙江电网雷击跳闸孕灾环境的低敏感区。

In order to improve the effectiveness and scientificalness of risk assessment of lightning trip-out in power grid and realize the differentiated lightning protection, it is necessary to study the hazard-pregnant environment of lightning trip-out in power grid. Based on 1：50 000 digital elevation model （DEM） and the data of accidents of lightning trip-out on 110 kV and above transmission lines from 2005 to 2013 in Zhejiang Power Grid, the topographic factors of lightning trip-out spots, including elevation, slope, aspect, land use type and river network density are obtained by using the GIS technology. The topographic characteristics of lightning trip-out spots are quantitatively studied. The hazard-pregnant en- vironment evaluating model in Zhejiang Power Gird is established on Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method with elevation, slope, aspect, land use type and river network density as five assessment indices and a hazard-pregnant envi- ronment risk zoning map of Zhejiang power grid is drawn. Correlation analysis with the risk distribution of disaster-causing factor shows that the correlation coefficient is 0.451 and the hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity zoning map for Zhejiang Power Grid is reasonable and could be applied to risk assessment of lightning trip-out in Zhejiang Power Grid. From the analysis of the hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity distribution, the high hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity distribution of lighming trip-out in Zhejiang Power Grid is mainly located in the north of northern Zhejiang and the coast of eastern Zhejiang. The low hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity distribu- tion of lighming trip-out in Zhejiang Power Grid is mainly located in the central Zhejiang and the western Zhejiang.