供给侧结构性改革为什么是必由之路?——中国式产能过剩的经济学解释

Why Is Supply-side Structural Reform Inevitable?——Economic Explanation for Chinese Overcapacity

本文跳出市场和政府之争,在传统供需平衡模型中引入退出价格和饱和需求等新假设,通过消费结构和住房属性的异质性处理、二元市场的均衡分析,为供给侧结构性改革提供中国特色社会主义的经济学理论解释。主要观点是:中国式产能过剩是商品和住房二元市场叠加的饱和需求式过剩。普通商品市场的"饱和需求陷阱"和住房市场的"投资偏好陷阱"是关键制约点。这使得需求刺激政策在饱和需求式过剩中失灵,并通过二元市场的"劣驱良"效应,引发经济"脱实向虚"的趋势。应通过二元市场的联动式调控,形成以供给方向和供给对象的结构性调整为重点的供给侧结构性改革。

Summary： China is the second biggest economy and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. This provides a dramatic background for economic research. Over the past three years, China＇s economy has shifted from rapid to moderate growth, and economists have attempted to explain the reasons and mechanisms behind this shift. China differs significantly from Western developed countries in the characteristics of its economic slowdown. An economic slowdown is always followed by a financial crisis and unemployment in developed countries, and structural reforms focus on domestic finance development, trade liberalization, current account liberalization and labor market reform. China＇s lower economic growth is characterized by overcapacity, which is reflected in the overstock and oversupply of products in 14 industries, particularly the steel, cement and glass industries. Faced with this economic slowdown, the Chinese government has engaged in supply- side structural reforms.