制造业比重、生产的垂直专业化与金融危机

Proportion of Manufacturing in GDP,Vertical Specialization and Financial Crises

对于制造业比重与金融危机的关系,本文整理了1970年到2011年160个国家的跨国面板数据,建立金融危机预警模型研究后发现:一国制造业产值占GDP比重越高,其爆发货币危机和主权债务危机的可能性就越高,但制造业比重与银行危机无显著关系。进一步的理论和实证分析表明,在当前全球生产垂直专业化分工的背景下,同一产品的不同生产环节被配置在不同的国家和地区。这使得一国制造业产值占GDP的比重越高,其参与垂直化分工程度就越深,该国贸易中中间品的比重就越高。这会使得国外经济波动更容易传递到国内,本国经济波动中受到世界因素的影响越大。由于主权债务危机和货币危机受外部因素的影响更大,因此爆发危机的可能性更高。

Summary： Some scholars and policymakers believe that ＂ de-industrialization,＂ as advocated by European and American countries before the international financial crisis in 2008, drove the economy to become increasingly dependent on the virtual economy, represented by the financial industry, and was a significant cause of the crisis. Was ＂de-industrialization＂ the root cause of the financial crisis？ Can current ＂re-industrialization＂ reduce the probability of a financial crisis occurring or effectively check the emergence of such a crisis？