金融发展与国民储蓄率:一个倒U型关系

Financial Development and the Aggregate Savings Rates:An Inverted-U Relationship

金融发展会同时影响家庭储蓄与企业投资,从而是决定国民储蓄率的重要因素。基于世界银行1973—2005年的跨国面板数据,本文利用动态面板回归发现金融发展与储蓄率之间存在显著的倒U型关系,即在金融发展水平较低时,储蓄率随着金融市场的发展而逐步提高,而当金融市场发展达到一定的程度后,储蓄率则随之下降。为解释以上实证发现,本文构建了一个家庭与企业均受融资约束的动态一般均衡模型。从理论上,本文证明了金融发展会降低家庭的储蓄动机,同时又会提高企业的投资需求。由于均衡储蓄率由家庭储蓄与企业投资共同决定,模型蕴含了金融发展与总储蓄率之间的非单调关系。数值模拟显示,本文模型能够解释金融发展与储蓄率之间的倒U型关系。

Summary： A large literature has shown that financial constraints matter for household consumption and savings. Meanwhile, numerous studies have also found that financial constraints on corporate investment are pervasive even in developed economies. As savings and investment constitute the supply and demand for the loanable funds market, financial development （hereafter FD） produces both demand-side and supply-side forces on the equilibrium savings rate. Financially constrained households tend to save as a precaution, so FD leads to a decreasing household savings rate. On the other hand, financially constrained firms cannot invest to their optimal level, so FD leads to an increasing firm investment and therefore an increasing savings rate in equilibrium. Consequently, the effect of FD on the savings rate is non-monotonic. Horioka ＆ Terada-Hagiwara＇s （2012） empirical study using 12 Asian economies confirm this.