西宁市1951～2015年气温及降水量变化特征

Change Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation from 1951 to 2015 in Xining City

基于西宁气象站1951~2015年的逐月气温及降水资料,利用滑动平均法、线性倾向估计法、累计距平法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法及Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了西宁市近65年气温及降水量的变化特征。结果表明,近65年来,西宁市年均气温及四季季均气温均呈上升趋势,其中年均气温及春冬季均温上升趋势达显著水平,冬季均温对年均气温变化的贡献最大;年均气温于1972年发生突变现象,其变化第1、2、3主周期分别为45、32、20年;西宁市年降水量及四季季均降水量均呈上升趋势,仅冬季降水量变化趋势达显著水平,夏季降水量对年降水量变化的贡献最大;年降水量于1992年发生了突变现象,其变化的第1、2、3主周期分别为45、32、18年。

Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2015in Xining meteorological station,the linear trend method of estimation,method of moving average,accumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,and wavelet analysis method were adopted to analyze the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation of Xining City in nearly 65 years.The results show that the annual average and seasonal temperatures are on the rise in Xining City,and the rise trend of annual average temperature and the spring and winter temperature are significant,and the contribution of winter average temperature to the annual average temperature change is the largest.The annual average temperature occurred the sudden change phenomenon in 1972,and the change of the first,second and third main cycle respectively are 45 years,32years,and 20 years.The average and seasonal precipitation are on the rise,only the winter precipitation trend is significant,and the contribution of summer precipitation to the annual average precipitation is the largest.The annual average precipitation occurred the sudden change phenomenon in 1992,and the change of the first,second and third main cycle respectively are 45 years,32years,and 18 years.