基于熵权的网络层次分析法在水利工程项目投标风险决策中的应用

Application of Analytic Network Process Based Entropy Weight in Bidding Risk Decision-making of Water Conservancy Project

针对水利工程复杂及失事后果严重等特点,企业在投标前应结合实际情况充分考虑风险因素和中标后的收益。为了能科学合理地进行投标风险决策,在综合考虑业主、项目、投标人自身及竞争对手的基础上,建立了风险因素指标体系,为综合考虑指标间内在联系,采用网络层次分析法计算各指标因素的权重,并利用熵权理想点法对得到的主观权重进行客观判断优选。实例应用结果表明,该方法可有效进行投标风险决策。

In view of the characteristics of water conservancy project complexity and the serious consequences of the accident,the enterprise should fully consider the risk factors and the profit after winning the bid in combination with the actual situation before bidding.In order to scientifically and rationally carry out bidding risk decision,a risk factor index system is established on the basis of comprehensive consideration of the owner,project,the bidder and competitors.In order to comprehensively consider the internal relations between indexes,the weights of each index factor are calculated by analytic network process an the ideal point method of entropy coefficient is used to make the objective judgment and optimize the subjective weight.The application results show that the scheme can effectively make bidding risk decision.