京津冀地区县域农业发展与农民收入的时空耦合特征

Spatiotemporal Coupling Characteristics of Agricultural Development and Farmers' Income at County-level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

通过构建时空耦合测度模型并结合空间自相关方法,系统分析2000—2014年京津冀地区县域农业发展和农民收入的时空耦合协调特征,以期为区域农业和农村经济协调发展提供数据支撑。结果表明:①研究期间,中度耦合水平的县域占全区县域总数的98.2%以上,总体处于中度耦合水平,距离良性共振耦合尚有差距。②2000—2014年,受区域农业禀赋、经济发展基础、政策倾斜等要素的影响,县域耦合协调性不高,多数处于拮抗阶段和磨合协调阶段,时序演变具有阶段性。③县域农业发展和农民收入以滞后和同步发展类型为主;农业超前发展、农业发展和农民收入基本同步的县域数目增多,农业发展滞后的县域数目减少。其中,拮抗滞后(Ⅰ)、拮抗同步(Ⅱ)、拮抗超前(Ⅲ)、磨合滞后(Ⅳ)、磨合同步(Ⅴ)、磨合超前(Ⅵ)是主要的耦合协调发展类型。42000—2014年,县域耦合协调性的空间集聚性显著,且呈现阶段性变化。建议未来因地制宜地采取调控手段和政策,促进区域农业产业和农民收入协调发展。

The analysis and identification of evolution characteristics and coupling coordination of agricultural development and farmers＇ income in the transformation period is of great significance to guide regional agriculture and rural economic development. This paper systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal coupling coordination characteristics of agricultural development and farmers＇ income from 2000 to 2014 at county level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region through constructing coupling degree index, coupling coordination degree index and simultaneous development index and in combination with spatial autocorrelation technology. The results show that： 1） County-level agriculture is moderate coupling on the whole, and there still are some gaps from benign resonance coupling. 2） Influenced by regional agricultural endowment, economic development basis and preferential policies, the county-level coupling coordination is not high. Most of the counties are in the antagonistic and running-in coordination stage, and temporal evolution is staged. 3） During the study period, antagonistic delay （ Ⅰ ）, antagonistic synchronization （II ）, antagonistic advance（Ⅲ）, running- in delay（Ⅳ）, running-in synchronization（Ⅴ）, and running-in advance （Ⅵ） are main types of coupling coordinated development. 4） County-level coupling coordination appears significant space centralization effect. It is recommended to take control measures and policies according to the actual conditions, and thus to promote coordinated development of regional agriculture and farmers＇ income.