旅游业与新型城镇化协调发展效应评价——以张家界为例

Effect Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Tourism Industry and New Urbanization——A Case Study of Zhangjiajie

在新型城镇化内涵、旅游业与新型城镇化互动关系的理论分析基础上,从产业生成周期视角,评价及探讨旅游业与新型城镇化的发展水平及其动态关系。采用1989—2014年张家界旅游及城镇相关数据,结合小波分析、熵值法和时间序列分析法,研究发现:旅游业的就业及收入效应表现较好,城镇化的社会、经济及生态方面表现突出;出现期及生成期旅游业的发展水平低,但成长速度较快,城镇化则相反,两者之间存在长期均衡关系,互为因果,短期内正负效应交替,长期内均有稳定正向效应;发展期,旅游业发展水平反超城镇化,两者相互协调发展,但城镇化不是推动旅游业发展的原因,产生的冲击效应也较弱。文章最后根据研究结论提出几点政策建议。

Based on the analysis of the new urbanization connotation and the interaction of tourism industry and now urbanization, by using the related data of Zhangjiajie from 1989 to 2014 and combining with wavelet analysis, entropy method and time series analysis, this paper evaluates and discusses the development level and dynamic relationship of the both from the perspective of industry generation cycle. The study shows： The employment and income effect of the tourism industry are good, and the social, economic and ecological aspects of urbanization are outstanding; In the emergence and formation period, the development level of tourism industry is low, but the growth rate is relatively fast, which is opposite to the urbanization, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, which is also a reciprocal causation. There is an alternation of positive and negative effects in the short term and there is a stable positive effect in the long term; in the developing stage, the level of tourism industry surpass that of urbanization, forming a coordinated relationship, but urbanization is not the reason to promote the development of tourism industry, and its impact effect is also weak. Finally, according to the conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations.