中国海洋经济区域与结构均衡性研究

Regional and Structural Equilibrium Analysis of Marine Economy in China

基于基尼系数分解模型,结合边际效应理论,对1996—2014年我国海洋经济的区域与结构均衡性变动特征及内在机制进行了研究,提出有效改善海洋经济区域与结构均衡性的主要方向。研究发现:1996—2014年我国人均海洋产值和海岸线经济在密度不同的指标下,区域均衡性整体呈现先变弱后变强的变化趋势,在人均海洋产值指标下,三大区域内部的均衡性在波动中提高;在海岸线经济密度指标下,三大区域内部均衡性在波动中有所下降;结构均衡性同样呈现先变弱后变强的变化趋势,海洋第一产业均衡性总体变化不大,海洋第二、三产业均衡性前期波动下降后期得到改善。通过基尼系数的边际效应发现,提高我国北部地区海洋产值并在特定年份提高北部地区海岸线资源利用水平、南部海岸线资源利用水平,有利于改善我国海洋经济区域的均衡性;发展海洋第一产业,在特定年份提高我国海洋第三产业产值,有利于提高海洋经济结构的均衡性,在当今注重海洋第二、三产业发展的同时,要时刻关注我国地区海洋第一产业的发展。

Since the reform and opening up, China＇s marine economy developed rapidly and became a new economic growth point. Region marine economic development level and the development level of marine industries in the different regions were obviously different and the difference was in- creasingly obvious. It was bound to affect China to achieve the goal of building a marine power. Combined with marginal effect theory and based on the Gini coefficient decomposition model, this paper studied the characteristics and the internal mechanism of the regions and structure equilibrium of the marine economy in 1996 - 2014.The results showed that although the time node of the region equilibrium from weak to strong was different based on per capita marine output and coast economic dens!ty,the equilibrium of region economic development in our country in 1996 - 2014 took on a overall from weak to strong trend. The structure equilibrium of the same at first weakened and then became weak to strong trend, and similar changed in the time node just like changed in the regional equilibrium. By analyzing the marginal effect of Gini coefficient, the authors found that improving the north- ern and southern marine output and improving the level of northern coastline resources utilization were conductive to improve the equilibrium of the marine economic zones. Improving the output of the first industry and the tertiary industry in the specific year was conductive to the improvement of the equilibrium of the marine economic structure. In today＇s focus on the development of the second and third industry, we should also pay attention to the development of the first industry in the region and used marine science and technology to transform and upgrade the marine first industry.