基于集对分析法的长三角雾霾风险评估

Haze Risk Assessment Based on Set Pair Analysis in Changjiang River Delta

通过层次分析法确定雾霾风险评价指标权重,依据指标选择原则确立10个雾霾风险指标,引入集对分析法对我国长三角雾霾风险进行风险等级评估。研究表明:1上海、南京、杭州、合肥四个城市风险等级分别为IV级、III级、III级、III级。2四个城市雾霾风险较高普遍原因是PM2.5年均浓度、PM10年均浓度差异度过高,其中上海市风险等级高于其他三个城市,原因是单位机动车数量和人口密度为对立因素,以及环境监测和城市绿化率有待改善。对雾霾风险分析结果做出了相应的风险对策研究。

Haze risk evaluation index weights determined by analytic hierarchy process（AHP）, and setting 10 haze risk index based on the prin- ciples of index selection, the introduction of set pair analysis was carried out on the haze risk level of risk assessment of Changiiang River Delta. The results showed that：①In Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei four city risk graded IV level III, level III, level III respectively. ②The annual common reason of four cities haze riskier was that the higher of annual concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 was concentration difference, and the risk level of Shanghai was higher than other three cities, the reason was that the unit number of motor vehicles and population density were opposite factors and en- vironmental monitoring and urban afforestation needed to be improved. Finally it made the corresponding risk countermeasure research for the haze risk analysis results.