我国流通业外资进入的就业效应研究

Research on the Employment Effect of Foreign Capital Entry in Distribution Industry

作为国民经济的基础产业和先导产业,流通业的重要作用之一在于吸纳就业。而持续的外资进入对我国流通行业造成了巨大冲击,并对其行业内就业产生了十分复杂的影响。文章从理论上探讨了流通业外资进入对行业内就业产生的直接影响和间接影响,并对其总体影响进行了验证。面板门限回归模型的估计结果表明,流通业FDI对行业内就业具有类"漏斗形"的非线性的影响:当流通业FDI小于270.16亿时,流通业FDI对行业内就业有着挤出效应;当流通业FDI处于270.16亿至5182.28亿时,流通业FDI对行业内就业不存在显著影响;当流通业FDI水平高于5182.28亿时,流通业FDI对行业内就业有着正向拉动作用。通过对流通业外资进入影响就业的机制进行检验,文章进一步指出,流通业外资进入主要通过商业集聚效应、市场竞争效应、劳动力再分配效应以及流通渠道再造效应对就业产生影响,且流通业外资进入产生的就业效应主要是通过对内资批发业的影响而产生的。文章提出,流通业外资进入存在的"就业陷阱"值得警惕——在相当长时间内,流通业外资进入对我国绝大多数地区的行业内就业会产生负向挤出效应。这一研究结论对于不同地区,尤其是三、四线市场吸纳外资的态度和政策具有一定指导意义。

Being the basic and leading industry of the national economy,distribution industry plays an important role in creating jobs.Sustainable foreign capital entry has tremendous shocks to China＇s distribution industry,thereby exerting very complex impacts on the employment in this industry.This paper theoretically discusses the direct and indirect effects of foreign capital entry on the employment in distribution industry,and verifies its total impact.Overall,the results of panel threshold regression model show that,FDI of distribution industry has a quasi＂funnel-shaped＂nonlinear effect on the employment in this industry：when the amount of FDI is less than 27.016 billion yuan,there is a crowdingout employment effect;when the amount of FDI is between 27.016 billion and 518.228 billion,there is no significant effect;and when the amount of FDI is above 518.228 billion,there is a positive effect in boosting the employment.Through the test of the effect of foreign capital entry on the employment in distribution industry,it further points out that foreign capital entry in distribution industry has effects on the employment mainly through commercial agglomeration effect, market competition effect,labor redistribution effect and circulation channel reconstruction effect,and the employment effect of foreign capital entry in distribution industry stems from the effect on domestic wholesale industry.It argues that we＇d better attach importance to the＂employment traps＂of foreign capital entry in distribution industry,and during quite a long time,there is a negative crowing-out employment effect in most areas of China in distribution industry.This conclusion has certain significance to the attitudes and policies for attracting foreign capital in different regions,especially for the small cities and counties.