茂名低温阴雨等级的预报方法初探

Preliminary Study on Forecasting Methods for Different Intensities of Sustained Chilly Rains in Maoming

利用茂名地区5个站点1969—2016年低温阴雨发生情况和相应的气象资料,通过对低温阴雨发生年景与主要气象因子进行相关分析,建立适合本地的低温阴雨等级预测模型。结果表明,茂名低温阴雨等级与上年2月平均气温、上年12月平均日照呈显著正相关,与上年1月平均气温、上年11月平均气温、上年8月平均日照呈显著负相关(P<0.05)。对以上气象预测模型进行模拟和预报,其准确性较高,可以作为本地预测预报工具之一。

Using the records of sustained chilly rains （SCR） and corresponding meteorological data from 1969 to 2016 for five observation sites of the Maoming area, we performed a correlation analysis of the links between the years of potential SCR and main meteorological factors and set up a forecasting model for different intensities of local SCR. The results are shown as follows. The intensity of local SCR is much positively correlated with the mean temperature of February of the previous year and the mean sunshine duration of December of the previous year, but much negatively correlated with the mean temperature of January and November of the preceding year and the mean sunshine duration of August of the preceding year （ P 〈 0. 05）. As the simulation and forecasting are quite accurate with this forecasting model, it can be used as one of the local forecasting means.