Richards模型与Logistic模型在人口预测中的比较

Comparison of Richards Model and Logistic Model in Population Prediction

Logistic模型是常用的人口预测模型,在Logistic模型的基础上再添加一个参数,得到一个含有4个参数的非线性s型增长模型,即Richards模型;分别通过Logistic模型和Richards模型对1985—2014年的中国人口进行了预测,建立了人口预测模型;通过与实际人口相比,结果表明,Richards模型比Logistic模型拟合效果更好。

Logistic model is a commonly used population prediction model, and a nonlinear s-type growth model containing four parameters, Richards model, is obtained by adding a parameter to Logistic model. Chinese population during 1985-2014 is predicted by Logistic model and Richards model respectively, and the population prediction model is constructed. By comparing with the real population, the results show that Richards model is better than Logistic model in fitting effect.