政府推进型工业化与城镇化动态交互效应研究——以三峡库区为例

Research on Dynamic Integration between Industrialization and Urbanization under Government Promotion

基于2003—2014年三峡库区工业化与城镇化面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型进行实证分析,量化工业化与城镇化动态交互效应,并比较重点库区和一般库区两化动态交互效应的差异性。研究结果表明:三峡库区工业化对城镇化发展的提升作用不明显,城镇化发展依赖于前期增长水平;三峡库区城镇化对工业化发展的影响效果明显,短期对工业化发展存在挤出效应,长期对工业化发展存在溢出效应;政府推进力度越强,则工业化与城镇化的市场自发推进特征就越弱。

Based on panel data of industrialization and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir area during 2003--2014, by using panel vector auto-regression model to conduct empirical analysis, this paper quantifies the dynamic interaction effect between industrialization and urbanization, and compares the difference in the dynamic interaction between important area and general area of the Reservoir area. The research results show that the promotion effect of the industrialization of Three Gorges Reservoir area on the urbanization development is not obvious, that urbanization development depends on previous growth level, that the impact of the urbanization on industrialization development in the Reservoir area is significant, has crowding out effect on the industrialization development in short-time but has spillover effect on the industrialization in long-term, and that the stronger the government promotion effect is, the weaker the spontaneous market promotion effect on industrialization and urbanization is.