生态足迹视角下区域适度人口容量预测——以赣州市为例

Moderate population capacity prediction under the theory of ecological footprint——A case study of Ganzhou

根据生态足迹理论,建立生态足迹计算模型和生态适度人口容量预测模型,分别对赣州市2012年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行测算与分析,对赣州市2020年生态适度人口容量进行预测.结果显示:2012年赣州市域生态足迹为1.346704955 hm^2/人,可利用生态承载力0.580912783 hm^2/人,生态赤字为0.765792172hm^2/人,预测赣州市2020年生态适度人口容量为1047.07万人.与预测的生态适度人口容量相比,根据四次多项式曲线拟合模型预测的赣州市2020年人口总量将超出约106.54万人.届时,赣州市将面临严重的人口压力.据此,为提高赣州市适度人口容量以及减轻人口压力提出几点建议.

Based on the ecological footprint theory, the ecological footprint model was designed and the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Ganzhou in 2012 was calculated. In order to predict the ecological moderate population capacity, the population forecast model was proposed in this paper simultaneously. The results show that the per capita ecological carrying capacity, the per capita ecological footprint, the per capita ecological deficit are 0.580912783hm^2, 1.346704955 hm^2 and 0.765792172 hm^2. The moderate population capacity is 10470700 in 2020. Compared with the ecological moderate population capacity, the population calculated by the polynomial curve fitting model will exceed about 1065400 in 2020. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the capacity of regional moderate population and to relieve the population pressure.