高等教育发展性经费供求前景研究——基于河南省普通高校教育经费问题的分析

The research of supply and demand prospect of developmental funds——Based on the analysis of supply and demand problem on higher education funds in Henan province

高等教育经费供求问题一直受到社会各界普遍关注。本研究从供给与需求两个方面对河南省2015-2020年普通高校发展性经费的潜在需求和供给能力进行分析,以期为我国高等教育发展性经费的科学配置提供参考。首先,根据河南省人口现状和Eviews软件,统计和预测河南省2015-2020年高等教育适龄人口变化趋势,并统计和预测在校生规模,发现河南省2015-2020年高等教育适龄人口大致呈现下降趋势,但下降速度相对缓慢。其次,利用固定系数法对河南省普通高校发展性经费需求进行年度匡算与分析,发现发展性经费需求的变化趋势为先增后减,2010-2020普通高校发展性经费需求将进入高峰期。从需求趋势看,供求矛盾主要集中在2020年以前,发展性经费供给状况仍不容乐观,而＂调结构、缩差距、提效益＂则成为普通高校发展性经费科学配置的关键。为此,从发展规模、经费渠道和区域性协调等方面提出应对策略：第一,合理调控高校在校生规模,科学评估不同类型高校发展规模;第二,尽快建立多渠道的高等教育经费筹措机制,缓解政府与高校压力;第三,探索建立高校学杂费标准弹性制度,加强宏观调控和内外监督;第四,进行经费预算改革,加强对高校经费的管理和绩效评估;第五,适当调整高等教育招生名额区域分配政策,以提高地区适应性。

Funds supply and demand in higher education has been a widespread concern in the society. From the two aspects of supply and demand,we analyzed and predicted the supply and demand capacity of developmental funds of Colleges and Universities in Henan from 2015 to 2020. According to population development model and software EVIEWS,we simulated the school-aged population trends in higher education of Henan（ 2015- 2020） and predicted the scale of undergraduate students. Result shows that the school-aged population of higher education is generally decreasing between 2015 and 2020 with a slow speed,which means the school-aged population in Henan is gradually decreasing in the next 5 years. Then,using a fixed coefficient method,we analyzes the changing trends and see the 2010- 2020 total demand for developmental funds will reach the peak. Based on the level of economic development in Henan Province,this paper predicts the growth of the supply and demand of funds between 2015 and 2020. The next five years will be a critical period of higher education in Henan Province.