中国省际能源消费的空间相依、动态演进及其机制转换

Research on spatial dependence,dynamic evolution and transition mechanism of Chinese interprovincial energy consumptions

文章克服现有的能源消费相关文献缺乏理论研究的不足,基于我国省级政府官员考核和政治晋升激励制度的新视角,分析省际能源消费理论机制及其内在成因,并依此构建了能源消费的理论模型,模型表明我国省际能源消费存在着重要的空间相依和动态演进机制。基于上述理论及面板非线性平滑转移模型所进行的实证检验,进一步表明,省际能源消费不仅存在着明显的空间相依和动态演进机制,而且这些机制还存在着显著的非线性转换关系,表现为省际能源消费机制会依据各省人均GDP高低发生转换。以上理论和实证结论为我国进一步深化改革和完善能源政策以及政府官员考核和政治晋升激励制度政策等提供了新的科学依据。

This paper overcomes the shortcomings of the existing literatures about ignoring the micro theoretical mechanism of this issue. Based on the new view of the interprovincial government official assessment policy and prospect of political promotion incentive system, this paper analyses the internal mechanism of the interprovincial energy consumptions as well as its underlying reason, and then sets up the related consumption theoretical models. Based on the theoretical mechanism and the PSTR model, the empirical results show that the mechanism of interprovincial energy consumptions exists not only spatial dependence and dynamic evolution but also nonlinear transition significantly. The mechanism of provincial energy consumption will switch by the level of provincial per capita GDP. The above theory and empirical results provide a new scientific evidence for further deepen reformation and improvement of energy policy as well as government official assessment policy and prospects of political promotion incentive system.