我国石油化工合同能源管理项目风险评价

Risk evaluation of China's petrochemical Energy Performance Contracting(EPC) projects: Taking the Ningxia Petrochemical Company as an example

我国的合同能源管理刚起步不久,各方面数据都比较欠缺。虽然中石油、中石化、中海油和中化等几大国有石油石化企业对节能均给予了高度重视,但石油化工行业应用合同能源管理方面的成功案例仍然较少。为此,调研了合同能源管理的相关文献,以问卷方式收集了各公司合同能源管理专家的意见,并在此基础上建立了我国石油化工合同能源管理项目风险指标体系,采用改良层次法(G1法)和模糊综合评价法构建合同能源管理项目风险评价模型,并以中国石油宁夏石化公司实施的合同能源管理项目为例进行风险评价。研究结果表明:1采用G1法对我国石油化工合同能源管理项目进行风险评价,在指标权重的确定过程中既不需要构造判断矩阵,也不需要进行一致性检验,具有较强的操作性和适用性;2由于合同能源管理在我国石油化工领域可获取的基础数据较少,因此采用模糊评价法对其进行综合评价是合适的。

Energy performance contracting(EPC), a form of a contractual agreement on which such projects are typically based, was introduced into China in 1997, however, little useful data can be referred to till present. Although state-owned companies of Petro China, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sino Chem, etc. have paid high attention to energy saving and efficiency improvements, few successful cases can be found. In view of this, through literature analysis and questionnaire survey, a risk index system of China's petrochemical EPC projects was established. Then, the G1 weighting method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were adopted to establish a risk evaluation model of EPC projects and a case study was made of the Petro China Ningxia Petrochemical Company. The study results were achieved as follows. First, the improved method of analytic hierarchy process- G1 weighting method is proved to be of strong operability and flexibility because it is unnecessary to construct judgment matrix and consistency test. Second, although EPC has been applied in China's petrochemical industry over the past decade, so less basic data can be obtained that only the fuzzy evaluation method is proper in this case study.