信贷市场分割、资本账户开放与经济增长——基于企业调查数据的研究

Credit Market Segmentation,Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth:A Research Based on Enterprise Survey Data

首先将信贷市场分割现象引入两部门增长模型,通过理论研究发现:基于要素禀赋结构、资本产出弹性的差异,信贷市场分割度上升导致经济增长率不同程度地下降,伴随资本账户的开放,经济增长率降幅减弱。其次,基于世界银行企业调查数据进行回归分析,并且通过不同类型企业规模结构构造工具变量克服内生性问题。实证研究发现:信贷市场分割显著降低了经济增长率,并且资本账户开放度越高,经济增长率受信贷市场分割的影响弹性越小。通过分组研究进一步发现:与对照组相比,外贸依存度较低和产品技术附加值较高的国家,资本账户开放的政策效果更为明显。因此,资本账户开放并非信贷市场分割的"万能药",我国当前应围绕优化需求结构和产品附加值结构,降低经济增长的外部依赖,同时提高外向型企业的技术水平,增强其国际议价能力以削弱外部冲击的影响。

The paper established a two-sector growth model to analyze the relationship between credit market segmentation, capital account liberalization and economic growth. The theoretical research finds that： based on the difference of factor endowment structure, the elasticity of output on segmentation decreases in different levels. Secondly, based on the World Bank＇s2010 enterprise survey data, this paper constructs instrumental variables using the structure of enterprise scale to overcome the endogeneity problem. Empirical study finds that： credit market segmentation significantly reduces the economic growth rate, and the higher the capital account liberalization degree is, the smaller the decrease level of economic growth rate is.Through the research on the groups, the results shows that： compared with the control group, when the foreign trade dependence degree is low and the product technology added value is high, the policy effect of capital account liberalization is obvious. Therefore, capital account liberalization is not ＂omnipotent medicine＂, so China should improve the technical level of export-oriented enterprises to enhance their bargaining power.