产业转移促进区域经济协调发展了吗——基于广东省县域数据的断点回归分析

Dose Industrial Transfer Policy Contribute to the Convergence between Regions:An Analysis Based on the Regression Discontinuity of County Data from Guangdong

文章基于2002~2013年广东88个县级市和市辖区的面板数据,利用产业转移政策实施对区域发展不平衡的外生冲击进行回归分析。结果发现:第一,在2006年产业转移政策实施以后,广东省区域经济发展不平衡的情况有所改善,产业转移政策实施后人均实际GDP增加111.2%,劳均实际GDP增加34.4%,城镇职工工资增加73.0%。第二,政策在不同地区影响存在差异。粤西地区人力资本、人均资本对政策实施最敏感,产业转移实施通过人力资本、人均资本使泰尔指数分别降低0.000359%、0.000297%。粤北山区政府规模对政策实施敏感,产业转移的实施通过政府规模降低泰尔指数0.000463%。粤东地区、珠三角地区受影响最小。第三,产业转移政策实施通过提高人力资本、增加投资规模、扩大政府规模、提高工业化水平缩小经济发展差距,其中人力资本对区域间经济发展差距影响最大。第四,在考虑到政策的外部性以及产业承接地自身其他不可识别的因素后,结果具有稳健性。

Industrial transfer policy is one of the most important measures to promote the regional economic development in coordination. The paper uses the county data of Guangdong from 2002 to 2013 to estimate the effect of the policy. To avoid the estimating bias of the traditional way, it estimates the policy effect by fuzzy regression discontinuity. It finds that： firstly, after the implementation of industrial transfer policy, the regional economic disparity has been reduced significantly. After controlling the government size, the investment of fixed asset,the human capital and the structure of the industries, the policy still has a significant policy effect. Secondly, the policy has different effects on different regions. Thirdly, the policy promotes the economic performance by government size, the investment of fixed asset, human capital and the structure of the industries. The findings are robust.